Wales is past the peak of the third Covid wave, but we still need to be careful, says Mark Drakeford

Wales appear to be past the peak of the third wave of Covid-19 as the number of cases begins to fall.

But Prime Minister Mark Drakeford has called for caution, saying people need to be careful.

Speaking as he unveiled the results of the latest three-week restriction report in Wales, he said: “Three weeks ago, the number of people getting coronavirus in Wales increased. This trend continues into the first half of this three-week period. cycle, results in the highest levels of new cases of coronavirus we have seen since the onset of the pandemic.

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“This has been largely driven by a very large number of infections in the younger rates in those under 25 are about four times higher than in those over 60.

“In recent days, the number has started to drop to less than 500 cases per 100,000 people — but it is still very high. We have also seen some reductions in the number of people in the hospital with Covid-19.”

He warned: “The NHS and social care remain under enormous pressure from non-pandemic and emergency pressure. I would ask everyone to support the NHS by thinking carefully about the care they need- A&E should not be the first and only choices for any health problem. “

Drakeford also showed a graph of the modeling work done by Swansea University.

Experts at the university have predicted that the peak will fall and their models have previously proved to be correct and have contributed to the Welsh Government’s decision – making throughout the pandemic. Even the most pessimistic models suggested that the peak would be reached in early October. Read more about it here.

Drakeford said of the graph: “This is the most likely scenario that takes into account how humans are mixed, the vaccine’s immunity levels and how the delta variant behaves.

“The dotted blue line shows how the delta wave is estimated to behave. The thick black line shows what has actually happened in terms of the number of reported cases.

“As you can see, it looks like we’ve passed the top.

“Cases have been higher in this wave than they were last winter – shown by the dotted gray line.

“Swansea University forecasts have given us useful estimates during the pandemic and will help inform us about the coming months.

“Although the modeling forecasts look positive, the coronavirus has not disappeared and the pandemic is not over.

“Our medical advisors are concerned about higher levels of flu this winter as well as increases in other respiratory viruses.”

A ministerial meeting has decided that Wales will remain at zero alert level and the new action plan for coronavirus for autumn and winter has been announced. This means that there will be no significant changes to the rules over the next three weeks beyond those already announced.

Although no changes are being made to the Prime Minister, it has put what could change in a worst-case scenario for Wales. Referred to as “Covid Urgent”, it explains what could happen if there were sudden changes, such as a new variant, or if the vaccine’s immunity level drops, which could “risk overcoming the NHS”.

If these things happened, it would mean a return to the alarm system and restrictions in Wales, but the Prime Minister would say that they would only be used “proportionally” and as a “last resort”.

The so-called “Covid Stable” option is described as “the most likely scenario for the future”, where “we are used to living with coronavirus and we are gradually moving out of the pandemic to a position where the virus becomes a seasonal disease”.

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