Fri. May 20th, 2022

But the 5% increase in sales in September would have been higher if there were enough houses to meet demand

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At this point, when one thinks of a new view of the Toronto housing market, the well has run dry.

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It’s like we’re hamsters on a wheel. For every month that has passed, the market that the pandemic suddenly seized upon to only astonish us all and light a fire has somehow settled into a ho-hum-new-normal.

We have become so used to being shocked by it all that it is as if we have stopped registering the amazement.

It is almost as if we have entered the gloomy phase of acceptance.

Nevertheless, now that we are safe inside October, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s market statistics in September are inside and they are ripe for analysis.

The third strongest September ever, 9,046 homes traded in the first month of our traditional seasonal fall in the real estate market, an increase of almost as much as 5% from August. This is good news as it marks the first month since March where we have not experienced a drop in sales month to month.

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In short, our stock crisis is history. If we had enough houses to meet the demand from buyers eager to take advantage of bottom interest rates, the statistics would tell a different story.

With fewer homes available to change hands — and in September, 34% fewer listings hit the market than the same month last year — there is a built-in limit on sales that can take place. So when you look at the number of transactions, the big one tells us that our numbers do not capture the number of active buyers out there, the increase in the average selling price is.

Anecdotally, if you talk to agents, they will tell you that houses with 7, 10, 14 offers are now the norm.

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TRREB President Kevin Crigger summed it up perfectly: “Demand has been incredibly robust throughout September with many qualified buyers wanting to buy a house tomorrow, provided they could find a suitable property. With new listings in September down by a third compared to last year, it’s easier said than done to buy a home for many. The lack of housing supply and options has reached a critical time. ”

In the coming months, as immigration reopens, office towers continue to fill with people returning to work, and life begins to look old normal again, the structural aspects of our real estate market will only tighten. We have long said that this upward trajectory will slow down when prices eventually fall out of reach, but so far prices have continued to rise and yet buyers remain.

As long as we have people willing to participate, these market conditions will continue to drive up prices.

October will be more of the same – you can bet on that.

@brynnlackie

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