With the end of Australia’s COVID pandemic, how does Scott Morrison, Anthony Albanese form politically?

On Thursday, Morrison – who has endured months of criticism for a slow rollout of the vaccine – held a press conference to mark NSW passing the 70 percent double vaccination mark in the latest of its “sunlit hinterland” press conferences, which strikes a strong optimistic note.

“NSW will be able to start the process of opening safely and staying safe open. That’s what’s different this time … when you hit these vaccination rates, you can open with certainty again, and you can open safely with certainty again, and you can stay open, ”he said.

“To all those who are still in lockdown, you can look at this day and say we are there soon and I know you will be. It does not last long. And as the days get warmer, I think Australia’s prospects continue to brighten. ”

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese.  ALP will once again take an Australian-made procurement strategy to a federal election through a 10-point plan.

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese. ALP will once again take an Australian-made procurement strategy to a federal election through a 10-point plan.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Morrison’s framing of the present moment was designed to place him in front and at the center as the national figure leading Australia on to the other side of the pandemic, thus putting the past difficult months behind him and burning his credentials in the face of an expiring election. by May next year.

Political observers close to Morrison insist the prospect of an election late this year, as the prime minister has said publicly, is now remote because the government just has too much to do between now and the nation is reopening completely.

It includes opening state borders, letting Australians travel abroad again and then letting skilled migrants and students back into the country in a COVID-safe way, as well as landing a climate agreement with citizens and getting the economy going.

The risk that individual states will go their own way and remain walled or shut down when cases rise is also a major concern for the federal government – and therefore the PM, over and over again, hammers that the national plan states that lockdowns will permanently become past.

A politician close to Morrison, who is not authorized to speak in public, says the election window is a bit cramped “but you need a very good reason to go early”.

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“We’ve turned a serious corner to vaccines, Labor’s‘ they had two jobs ’line on quarantine, and vaccines were a good line for a while, but it always had a use by date. It was tactical, not strategic, ”he says.

“If people say they know what’s going to happen in the next three months, they’re bull — you. What matters is that we formulate a sense of stability and security. ”

It is that sense of security, of continuity, that will form part of the bedrock — along with having the economy restarted — of Morrison’s re-election.

But Labor believes the government still has significant anchors being weighed around the neck in the form of the climate deal, disagreement in National Party ranks and state premieres queuing up to demand more funding for their health and hospital systems.

As a key player in the ranks of the opposition, it expresses: “Morrison’s hope for liberation and freedom [from lockdowns] will obliterate his negatives, but I do not think he can bank on it. There are also ongoing issues such as corruption and misconduct by ministers; there are four weeks of [federal] Parliament left and he is not doing well there. ”

Ryan Liddell, a former senior adviser to then-opposition leader Bill Shorten and treasurer Wayne Swan, who also worked in NSW politics and is now a consultant, says the speed with which shutdowns are easing and the impact on the health system will be critical .

“Because the country has not experienced the pandemic in a consistent way, it makes it much harder for each side to present an overall message – look at the different experiences from Victoria and NSW versus WA, Queensland and SA,” he says.

“The other interesting dynamic is the role of the premieres. There are plenty of positive sides from the National Cabinet, but it has also reshaped the role of the Prime Minister. The premieres have a larger platform and they are not as inclined to listen to the PM’s direction as they may have been in the past.

“So the challenge for Scott Morrison is to try to get credit for the good times when things are opening up, but the premieres will also try to demand that credit. It’s a pretty uncertain balancing act between opening up in these states, the pressure on hospitals, and whether people have tolerance for easing the restrictions if things really go south when things open up. ”

New dynamic: Dominic Perrottet with Scott Morrison and then NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian.

New dynamic: Dominic Perrottet with Scott Morrison and then NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian.Credit:Wolter Peeters

Dominic Perrottet, who takes over the Prime Minister of NSW from Berejiklian, wants to change the dynamics of the national cabinet. Just months ago, Morrison and the then treasurer in exchanges over NSW’s share of federal financial support were exchanged with strong words. But by questions this week on the nine networks Today show about the couple’s fight history, Morrison said, “we have a good, robust relationship … So when we disagree, we disagree, and the next day we’re right back to it … He’s up for NSW. I look after the national interest ”.

According to Liddell, Labor must “brand Morrison with the hard times people have been through this year. But Morrison has the benefit of being in a pandemic, and Albanians need to ask people to reflect on a period most people will forget, which makes them uncomfortable. ”

Rachel Obradovic, a former adviser to Julie Bishop who also worked in Victorian politics and is now head of public affairs for the liberal-leaning CT group, suggests that as vaccination rates reach world-leading levels and health concerns decline, “voters will turn their backs on attention to the economic recovery, cost of living and jobs ”.

“The coalition will seek to focus the agenda back on its core capital in strong economic leadership,” she said, adding that security for companies to reopen and operate under COVID and for domestic and international borders to reopen and remain open is likely “a position the coalition will stick “.

“The challenge for the opposition will be to demonstrate that they are better equipped to run the economy at a time, the coalition will lead the economic recovery,” Obradovic said.

The work is well advanced with the economic and fiscal outlook in the middle of the year, known as MYEFO and handed in in December, where the government’s expenditure review committee meets regularly.

The budget update in December will provide crucial clues as to whether the government will submit another budget before an election in May or go earlier in March or April.

Morrison is likely to at least partially lead a campaign with a message asking voters, “Who do you trust to drive the economic recovery?”

As one minister puts it: “Every choice is hard, you have to find your way through, and it’s about delivering to local communities. We are going to the polls with a strong economy, strong national security and without new taxes.

“We will sandbag seats and we will demonstrate that we deliver to people.”

If this year’s MYEFO reveals significant new spending and austerity measures, a vote in early March, possibly called just after Australia Day, is far more likely.

But given how regularly COVID-19 has thrown basket balls in the 21 months since the pandemic began, who would bet on it?

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