Wed. Aug 10th, 2022

High COVID-19 vaccination rates and easing of restrictions should lift the mood of both consumers and businesses.

This will be good news for retailers who have been hit hard by half the population in the lockdown against the Delta variant, but also more broadly in terms of future employment and investment.

This week, there will be a series of confidence measures for consumers and businesses.

However, there will also be data showing the grim reality of having NSW, Victoria and ACT in lockdown.

The September Labor Force Report will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

Economist forecasts point to a further 120,000 job losses in the month following the violent 146,300 tumble in August. Forecasts range from a drop of 25,000 jobs to 225,000.

Perverts saw unemployment fall to a near-13-year low of 4.5 percent in August, but that was the result of people giving up looking for work.

ABS LABOR FORCE STOCK
Economists’ forecasts point to a further 120,000 job losses in September. Credit: AAP

For September, economists expect unemployment to rise to 4.8 percent, although forecasts were again widespread, from unchanged 4.5 percent to a rise to 5.4 percent.

Forward-looking indicators of employment, like job advertising, suggest that unemployment may reach its highest level of just over five per cent in the coming months.

Still, Reserve of Australia Governor Philip Lowe believes the ABS measurement of working hours is the best indicator of labor market conditions at the moment, which fell by 66 million hours in August, or 3.7 per cent.

On Tuesday, the weekly consumer confidence index ANZ -Roy Morgan – a clue to future household spending – will be published.

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