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Residential property prices are behaving a little more predictably after a very uneven path over the past two years.

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The pre-pandemic averaged resale prices for resale houses from $ 487,000 to $ 560,000 in March 2020. Many factors contributed. There was a shortage of inventories, the local economy was in full employment, and the city was playing catch-up with the staggering price increases recorded years earlier in Toronto and Vancouver.

When the virus forced an economic shutdown in March 2020, housing turnover volumes and prices fluctuated so little. But then the pandemic itself triggered a race for larger homes and rural properties, driven by historically low interest rates that made even very large mortgages affordable. Average house values ​​rose to nearly $ 760,000 last March.

Prices had been falling ever since, reaching $ 674,400 in August. But the average slipped back over $ 702,000 in September, according to data released Tuesday by the Ottawa Real Estate Board. It represented a year-on-year gain of 13 per cent.

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Chairman of the Board Debra Wright blamed the increase in tight stocks combined with “tirelessly in demand.”

Still, there are a few signs that the madness of last spring may be behind us. In April and May, when unit sales in Ottawa averaged an exceptionally robust 1,800 plus, it only took 10 or 11 days to sell a property once it was built. In September, it required an average of 25 days. Fewer than 1,250 units were sold, significantly below the COVID-powered September 2020, but roughly in line with what was normal for the previous year.

Condominiums were sold for an average of $ 425,400 in September, an increase of nearly 14 percent over the same period a year earlier.

A pattern that has kept pace has seen resale prices of rural housing rise at a faster pace than inside the core of Ottawa, which stretches from Kanata to Orléans. Based on 355 home sales across the valley outside of Ottawa, average prices peaked at $ 537,000 in September – an increase of more than 20 percent over September 2020. The gain was largest in Pakenham (a 55 percent year-over-year increase to $ 589,000), Almonte (a 44 percent increase to $ 610,000) and Embrun (a 41 percent gain to $ 604,000). Arnprior and Renfrew counties saw average resale values ​​rise by a modest 10 percent to $ 489,000.

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In the city itself, prices averaged $ 769,700 in September – an increase of 12.8 percent. The largest price increases (after removing districts with fewer than five sales) were in Manotick, which recorded 15 sales at an average of $ 1.2 million. It was a price increase of 36 percent from September 2020.

Within the most active sales districts, the largest value changes were recorded in Stittsville, where 65 homes changed hands for an average of $ 795,000 – a 25 percent increase year over year.

On the flip side, one in five of the city’s 48 core areas actually saw prices fall – from two percent in the Carp area ($ 757,000 average price) to 27 percent in Beacon Hill North and South ($ 769,000). In the latter case, the decline reflected a difference in sales geography. Fewer units were sold in the Tony Rothwell Heights enclave in the district last month compared to September 2020, and there were relatively more in the Cardinal Heights area.

Yes, location matters.

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