World crops, including corn, wheat and soybeans, are likely to be drastically affected by climate change as early as 2030, “several decades faster than estimated,” according to a recently published study.
The research – derived from NASA scientists – notes that in a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions, corn yields will drop a staggering 24 percent.
Maize is considered “the most important global crop in terms of total production and food security in many regions,” according to the study.
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Soybeans and rice are also expected to be negatively impacted, although the models created by the researchers provide varying levels of impact, ranging from a 2 percent drop to as low as 21 percent.
Crops such as corn, wheat and soybeans will be drastically affected by climate change as soon as the next decade
In a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions, corn yields will fall 24 percent by 2030
Soybeans and rice are also expected to be negatively impacted, although the models provide different levels of impact. The yield of wheat crops may increase, but production will be uneven across the globe and will not last forever
Rice could see a decline from 23 percent growth to 2 percent growth or as low as a 15 percent decline.
However, wheat crops could grow 17 percent, the researchers concluded.
‘We introduce the concept of climate impact to the field of agricultural impacts and highlight that major shifts in global crop productivity due to climate change are expected to occur within the next 20 years. [years], several decades faster than estimates based on previous model projections, ‘the authors of the study wrote.
The researchers used advanced climate and agricultural modeling to look for yield changes based on several factors, including expected increases in temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations.
“We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,” said the study’s lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop model and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute, in a statement.
Jägermeyr was particularly concerned about the expected fall in maize, adding, “a fall of 20% from current production levels could have serious global consequences.”
The study’s lead author Jonas Jägermeyr was particularly concerned about the expected decline in maize, adding, “a 20% decline from the current level of production could have serious global consequences”
Rice could see a decline from 23 percent growth to 2 percent growth or as low as a 15 percent decline. However, wheat crops could grow 17 percent, the researchers concluded
Although the yield of wheat crops will increase globally, according to the study, it will be uneven and will not last forever.
South Asia, the southern United States, Mexico and parts of South America will be able to grow the crop longer, as will certain parts of the northern United States, Canada and other East Africa.
But the gains could begin to “level off by the middle of the century,” NASA said in the statement.
Although the yield of wheat crops will increase globally, according to the study, it will be uneven and will not last forever. South Asia, the southern United States, Mexico and parts of South America will be able to grow the crop longer, as will certain parts of the northern United States, Canada and other East Africa. But the gains could begin to “level off by the middle of the century,” NASA said.
“Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies are making ambitious efforts to curb global temperature rise, global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,” Jägermeyr added.
“And with the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide.”
The researchers used the climate model simulations from the International Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6) and simulations for 12 crop models from Columbia University’s Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to present their results.
All five of the CMIP6 models looked at the Earth’s atmosphere for greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2100, while the MgMIP models were based on real biological responses to the crops in indoor and outdoor experiments.
In total, approximately 240 simulations were performed for each crop.
‘What we do is run crop simulations that efficiently grow virtual crops day by day, powered by a supercomputer, and then look at the change year after year and decade by decade in every place in the world,’ added the study’s co-author Alex Ruane .
The researchers also studied the effect that higher CO2 would have on photosynthesis and water retention and found that it would be positive, even though it “often cost nutrition”.
The researchers also studied the effect that higher CO2 would have on photosynthesis and water retention and found that it would be positive, even though it “often cost nutrition”, especially for wheat more than corn.
The scenarios presented by the study suggest that ‘current food production systems will soon face fundamentally changed risk profiles’, but the researchers note that this may change with various inputs, such as economic incentives, changed agricultural practices and breeding of harder crops.
The study was published earlier this week in the scientific journal Nature Food.
The study comes as governments around the world gather for the UN Climate Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he believes the world is likely to miss the 2.7 ° F (1.5 ° C) climate change target set out in the Paris Agreement target.
Earlier this year, a significant portion of the globe was treated with a crippling heat dome exacerbated by climate change, causing temperatures to reach 114 ° F in Italy, Spain and Greece and possibly resulting in the death of 1 billion marine animals in the Pacific Ocean.
Last month, the medical journal Lancet said health problems linked to climate change are getting worse, creating a ‘code red’ situation where drought is affecting food production and rising temperatures are leading to diseases like malaria and cholera spreading around the world.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT: A GLOBAL CONFORMITY ON TEMPERATURE LIMITS INCREASES THROUGH COUL DISPOSITION REDUCTION
The Paris Agreement, first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to keep the rise in global average temperature below 2 ° C (3.6ºF) ‘and to continue efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F)’.
It seems that the more ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) may be more important than ever, according to previous research, which claims that 25 percent of the world could see a significant increase in drier conditions.
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has four main objectives in terms of reducing emissions:
1) A long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels
2) Aiming to limit the increase to 1.5 ° C, as this would significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change
3) Governments agreed on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries
4) To make rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science
Source: European Commission