Oaks Day Tip: Sirileo will not be missed

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters controls the rule over Thursday’s VRC Oaks meeting in Flemington.

SIRILEO MISS (Race 2 No. 1 – $ 2.40)

Sirileo Miss flies in this time, wins at group 3 level last time out and she falls back to open jumps with only 2.5 kg over minimum. She is perfectly placed.

NEXT BEST

JUST BENJAMIN (Race 4 No. 9 – $ 9)

It was Benjamin who hit the line quite well, as he was not far away from Moe as number two. He will be better at that and moving into his real distance on Thursday. Expect him to be there.

MALOKVICH (race 6 No. 8 – $ 2.50)

Malkovich has been well-supported and rightly so after the last effort of the Group 2 club at Caulfield. He never runs a bad race and the rain will not worry him.

SPINNING (Run 9 No. 15 – $ 15)

The Tom Dabernig-trained filly was an easy winner first-up before riding well as it was close in Group 3 class last time. Her form is more than good enough for this, and Damien Oliver goes on board.

Neds Toolbox Handicap

Sydney sprinter Malkovich is a great chance to get another Melbourne win in Flemington. Image: Racing Photos via Getty Images

VALUE BET

VIANELLO (Race 5 No. 1 – $ 19)

Vianello are big odds for a winner of the last start at Caulfield. She will be in better shape again for that battle victory and has a good chance of each way at her current price.

JOCKEYEN

JAMES MCDONALD

Who other than J-Mac is the jockey to follow on Oaks Day after riding at the peak of his powers Saturday and Tuesday? RURU (race 1 no. 3 – $ 12), ZING (race 2 no. 3 – $ 4), SATIN LOVE (race 3 no. 17 – $ 7), DJUKON (race 4 no. 5 – $ 11), ESPIONA (race 5 no. .16 – $ 2), WRITEN BEAUTY (Race 6 No.10 – $ 5), DAISIES (Race 8 No.3 – $ 4.60), ROBODIRA (Race 9 No. 7 – $ 7.50).

THE WEEK IS COMING

Warrnambool runs during the day on Friday before a Pakenham night meeting. The Melbourne Cup Carnival concludes with the Stakes Day card in Flemington, while it is Ballan Cup Day in Geelong. The Ararat Gold Cup and Ararat Bowl run on Sunday, while Benalla also runs. Moe starts the work week with a meeting on Monday before a Hamilton showdown on Tuesday.

QUADZILLA WITH BREAD WATER

RACE 1: RACE 6

A difficult run down straight starts Thursday’s Oaks Day quaddy with Sydney speed player MALKOVICH (8) as the top pick after his excellent second place finish at Caulfield last time, and a soft lane would only improve his chances. PREZADO (3) is big odds, but he is a straight-track specialist who can improve his last few races at Caulfield. WRITEN BEAUTY (10) has won on the line and was scratched from a race last Saturday for this task. STARRY LEGEND (15) was solid in The Valley as number two and will be more fit again.

1. BEN – 3, 8, 10, 15

LEG 2: RUN 7

The national final is clearly the toughest race of the day with so many of these runners running in excellent shape. MY BOY BIRMINGHAM (5) will push forward and may be difficult to run down again, while RIOT AND ROSE (2) are undefeated and must be respected despite poor pulls. LEGEND OF ZORRO (1) was a game winner at Geelong and will get fitter again. TYPHOON HARMONY (12) will come out of the same race as Legend Of Zorro and will not be far away, nor will HELLO BROADCAST (14) be ready to win after two runs back from a long period.

2. BEN – 1, 2, 5, 12, 14

LEG 3: RUN 8

Thinking there are only four chances of winning in this year’s VRC Oaks. WILLOWY (2) is the top pick after her impressive Wakeful Stakes victory, where she relaxed well and finished powerfully. DAISIES (3) were again solid in the Wakeful Stakes and should be one of the hardest to endure. AVOID EXPRESS (1) jumps from 1600m to 2500m, but she is a distinguished foal who should go into the quad. GLINT OF HOPE (7) is a virgin, but drives well and bred to cope with The Oaks distance. 0

3. BEN – 1, 2, 3, 7

LEG 4: RUN 9

A big field to finish Thursday’s quaddy, but will put the $ 15 chance SPINNING (15) in as the best choice. She is a developing filly that comes home late. SERADESS (3) is also a must for the quaddy with its solid spring form. GLISTENING (2) was strongly backed and disappointed with The Valley last time, but was healthy over this course two runs back. ROBODIRA (7) did hard at The Valley and did not have much luck at Caulfield before that. She needs a wealth change.

4. BEN – 2, 3, 7, 15

$ 100 flexi for 31.25 pct

SKINNY QUADDIE

Hard quaddy to trim down on Oaks Day, but starts with PREZADO (3), MALKOVICH (8) and WRITTEN BEAUTY (10) in first leg. Leaves four runners in the other leg with LEGEND OF ZORRO (1), RIOT AND ROSE (2). MY BOY BIRMINGHAM (5) and TYPHOON HARMONY (12). Cuts the quad back to three runners in The Oaks with ELUSIVE EXPRESS (1), WILLOWY (2) and DAISIES (3) on their way in. Two runners can bring it home in the final stage with SERADESS (3) and SPINNING (15) to carry our hopes.

FIRST LEGS: 3, 8, 10

SECOND LEG: 1, 2, 5, 12

THIRD LEGS: 1, 2, 3

FOURTH LEGS: 3, 15

Cost $ 100 for 138 percent

NICK QUINNS POSTPOSE

OTTAWA STAKES (GROUP 3, 1000m)

Flemington, Thursday, R3, 13.55

Cavalla seems to be a big chance of winning at double-digit odds. The filly is $ 15 for the win and the $ 4.60 place, and there is a lot to like about her.

She won directly on the debut after doing a lot of wrong, including starting awkwardly and overflowing at various stages. Hugh Bowman takes the trip.

The money has come to the James Cummings-trained Magic Carpet, supported from $ 7.50 to $ 5.

Magic Carpet was a striking fourth place behind Kiki Express at debut.

TYPE: CAVALLA every way

DESIRED POLE (1400m)

Flemington, Thursday, R5, 15.15

One of the better chances of winning during the four days at Flemington seems to be the Chris Waller-trained filly Espiona.

She was heavily backed on her debut at Warwick Farm after some clever attempts and could not have been more impressive in winning by 3½ lengths after starting poorly.

James McDonald has had a great week and is taking the trip. The early money has come to her, from $ 2.15 to $ 2, and I’m happy to be on her with that offer.

There has been support for New York Baby, which has been supported from $ 9.50 to $ 7. She has been a model for consistency and is worth including in the multiples.

TYPE:SPY

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