South Australia’s vaccination difference revealed in five graphs

A total of 30 local governments in southern Australia will not reach 80 per cent double-dose vaccination until the state reopens its borders in 20 days, with Adelaide’s northern suburbs ignoring the deadline by weeks, according to forecasts from a local data researcher.

The model also predicts that the populated northern suburbs of Salisbury and Playford will not pass the 80 per cent jab milestone for over 16s before mid-December and early January.

The results come from a linear regression model constructed by South Australian data researcher Ben Moretti, with forecasts based on the last 10 weeks of available LGA vaccination data.

It also predicts Playford will be South Australia’s least vaccinated LGA by the border reopening date on 23 November with an expected double-dose rate of just under 60 per cent for over 16s.

The northern suburban council area reached 51.3 percent fully vaccinated on Sunday, compared to the nationwide average of 66.6 percent on the same day.

Neighboring Salisbury – which in 2019 had a population over 15 years of more than 114,000 people – is expected to be about 68 percent doubled by 23 November.

Expected second dose percentage of LGA for 23 November

Expected double-dose vaccination rates for each South Australian LGA on 23 November with areas below 80 per cent in orange and those above in blue (Graph: Ben Moretti).

The model also finds that the Karoonda East Murray region of Murray Mallee will take the longest time to reach the 80 per cent milestone, with the district council area not expected to pass the benchmark before 11 January.

Playford (January 7), Adelaide Plains (January 2), Mid Murray (December 31), Light Regional Council area (December 27) and Murray Bridge (December 23) are expected to be the next slowest to eclipse 80 pct.

Further, the model predicts that 30 of the 53 LGAs in southern Australia with vaccination data will not reach the 80 per cent double-dose mark at the current rate by 23 November.

The projections are based on LGA statistics from the Federal Ministry of Health, which exclude some remote communities in southern Australia due to difficulties in obtaining data.

Moretti said of particular concern are the high-population areas that are expected to fall short.

Forecast 23 November second dose percentage vs LGA population size

Each LGAs expected vaccination rate on November 23 plotted against their population size (Graph: Ben Moretti)

“This chart basically shows you that [LGAs] like Playford, Port Adelaide Enfield, Salisbury, they tend to have high populations around 75,000, 100,000, 125,000 people, ”said Moretti.

“By 23 November, their vaccination rates, in Playford’s case, would be around 60 per cent. [and] Salisbury would be around 70 per cent.

“You will see that there is a stock problem here.”

The latest figures from the federal government show that 67.3 per cent of South Australians over the age of 16 are fully vaccinated, while 82.1 per cent have received at least one dose.

A breakdown of South Australia’s current vaccination rates by area shows that a majority of LGAs are currently between 80 and 90 percent first dose and 50 and 70 percent second dose.

Histogram of SA LGAs after current first and second dose vaccination rate

Histogram representing the number of South Australian LGAs currently fit within each first and second dose vaccination group (Graph: Ben Moretti).

However, a breakdown of where the linear regression model predicts South Australia will be on November 23 shows that a majority of LGAs will still be within 60 and 80 percent double-dose brackets.

Histogram of SA LGAs after expected November 23 second dose vaccination rate

Histogram representing the number of South Australian LGAs expected to fit within each dual-dose vaccination setting on 23 November (Graph: Ben Moretti).

SA Health-commissioned University of Adelaide modeling, released on Monday, projects that the state will reach the overall 80 percent mark on November 29th.

“My biggest concern is the difference between the state rate and then the spread of LGA rates in terms of their percentages, and the nature of those with a high population and a low vaccination rate by November 23 …” Moretti said .

“[The government] can not look at the whole state’s numbers, they have to look at the LGA numbers, they have to look at the most vulnerable and the most disadvantaged in particular and make sure they have the highest level of vaccination. “

Expected 80, 90 percent vaccination dates for 53 SA LGAs

Compilation of graphs showing when all 53 SA LGAs (with vaccination data) are expected to hit 70, 80 and 90 percent double dose vaccination. The vertical dotted line represents November 23 (Graph: Ben Moretti).

As of Sunday, Burnside leads the state vaccination run with 82.7 percent of over 16-year-olds double-dosed with Mitcham (79.2 percent), Holdfast Bay (78.4 percent), Walkerville 78.4 percent) and Adelaide Hills (78.1 percent). percentage). cent) close behind.

Mount Gambier on Sunday overshadowed 95 percent of the first-dose vaccination, with nearly 73 percent of those over 16 being fully vaccinated.

The southeastern city is one of seven LGAs in southern Australia that have now passed 90 per cent single-dose vaccination.

“It’s pretty obvious that there’s a link between social disadvantage and vaccination rates,” Moretti said.

The LGAs that are doing really well are like Burnside, Unley, Adelaide Hills, Adelaide … and at the lower ends of the vaccination rates are the ones that have a higher degree of disadvantage.

“It’s due to a wide range of factors, things like shift work, labor casualization … access to vaccination centers, and demographic proliferation.”

In an effort to increase prevalence in the northern suburbs, the state government on Tuesday opened a new seven-day walk-in vaccination clinic in the Munno Para Shopping Center.

SA Health also extended this week’s Thursday opening hours in the Playford Civic Center’s vaccination center until 1 p.m.

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