Fri. Jul 1st, 2022

In the final week of the Ontario election campaign, a new survey suggests voters will wake up Friday morning with a government very similar to the one they had.

According to Friday’s survey by Angus Reid, Ontario voters are unenthusiastic about all of the provincial party leaders. Two-thirds said they did not like Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford, although polling by 338 Canada on Thursday seems to suggest that the most electors will hold their nose and vote for him anyway.

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford speaks in London, May 21, 2022. (Photo courtesy of Ontario PC Party)

Voters do not seem to like Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath or Ontario Liberal Party Leader Steven Del Duca either. Just 22 per cent found Del Duca appealing, while a third had a positive impression of Horwath. Another 30 percent liked Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

Pressed to make a choice, 35 per cent said Ford was their top choice for Premier. Horwath had the faith of just 21 per cent, while Del Duca and Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner were tied at 12 per cent.

One in five were unsure who would fill the role best.

338 Canada projects a Progressive Conservative majority next Thursday. It said there was almost no chance the NDP or the Liberals would form the next government at Queen’s Park, but an 85 per cent probability Ford would remain Premier.

Woman wearing protective face mask with shopping cart in front of supermarket (© Can Stock Photo / Malay)

Woman wearing protective face mask with shopping cart in front of supermarket (© Can Stock Photo / Malay)

Why? Considering affordability and inflation have emerged as the top issues in the campaign, three in ten believe Ford is the most qualified to tackle those concerns. Those who said Horwath were tied with those who were unsure. What was clear is voters do not trust Del Duca on the matter. Only 14 per cent believed he would make life more affordable for Ontarians.

Of the 14 ridings covered by, all but two are expected to stick with their representation in the last government.

Those two are Essex and London North Center, where there is no assurance the NDP will keep their seats. 338 Canada suggests Essex is leaning towards the Progressive Conservative candidate and concedes it’s a toss-up in London-North-Center.

Audrey Festeryga (Submitted photo)

Audrey Festeryga (Submitted photo)

The data was taken the same day Liberal candidate Andrey Festeryga dropped out of the race in Chatham-Kent-Leamington over allegations her campaign recycled signatures from another Liberal to secure her nomination. Whether her exit will have any impact is hard to say, but 338 Canada said the riding is safe for the Progressive Conservatives despite a change in representation. The incumbent, Rick Nicholls, is running for the Ontario Party this time around, and Trevor Jones picked up the nomination when he left the party.

Also safe, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. Minister of Labor, Training and Skills Development Monte McNaughton, is expected to win the seat easily for the Progressive Conservatives.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex are considered safe for the party, along with Oxford, Sarnia-Lambton, Bruce-Gray-Owen Sound, Huron-Bruce, and Perth-Wellington.

The New Democrats are expected to hold their seat in London-Fanshawe although the riding is considered “likely” and not “safe,” and London West is leaning NDP.

338 Canada suggests voters will likely elect Gemma Gray-Hall with the NDP in Windsor-Tecumseh, and return incumbent Lisa Gretzky in Windsor West.

Election Day is June 2.

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